CSEES Analyses
A rainbow government of larger and smaller parties and independent candidates emerges in Skopje.
A few days before the fourth successive parliamentary elections the situation in the former Yugoslav republic was driven to excess. There are some factors that can seriously test the fragile ethnic peace between Albanians and Macedonians and the settlement of a life together.
The gravest threat is posed by extremely disposed Albanian radicals of the Albanian National Army?ANA, a breakaway fraction of the National Liberation Army?NLA that for 6 months in 2001 was the underlying menace for the security in Macedonia. The ANA leaders do not accept the Ohrid Framework Agreement and continue their terrorist attacks. Recently they assumed responsibility for the murder of two Macedonian policemen and kidnapping of five civilians who were released only after the intervention of international organizations.
According to data of the Macedonian intelligence service, since August the ANA commanders have actively established their structures in places where the NLA used to operate. The latest information from Macedonia indicates that the Commandant of the paramilitary formation has dropped the idea of provoking an Albanian rebellion in the country. The reason is the lack of support among their fellow countrymen. That is why it is expected that the efforts of the ANA are to be directed to a series of terrorist attacks and other activities designed to maintain the tension in the country. The main operative perimeter shall again be Tetovo, Gostivar and Kumanovo, while it is envisaged that the attacks shall be expanded around Struga as well. Proof of that are the almost daily sporadic skirmishes and local cases of violence such as bombed cars, gas stations, and cafes.
Recently public opinion in Macedonia was influenced by information on major contradictions between the ANA commanders and the former NLA leader Ali Ahmeti who has been openly opposed to the idea of an Albanian rebellion. Enjoying a sweeping popularity among the Albanians, Ahmeti and his supporters intend to focus on the political stage and to leave the military course of action behind. This very reason accounts for the unwillingness of the former NLA commander to renew the conflict. But his sneaking ambition for power, accompanied by a well-organized program, attempts to draw members from the other Albanian parties and to gain the votes of the smaller ethnic groups - Roma, Muslim and Wallachs ? and build up tension among the Macedonians.
The Macedonian side poses another threat to peace, most frequently personified in the Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski and the Interior Minister Ljube Boskovski. During last year?s conflict they both openly declared to be for a forceful solution of the problem that was prevented by the international mediators. Their position has not changed radically. The two most influential men on the political stage in Macedonia continue fanning the inter-ethnic fire with their careless statements and actions. Threatening that any attempt of the Albanians at destabilization shall be brutally smashed puts at risk the fragile confidence between the two ethnic groups. A week ago Prime Minister Georgievski went even further, accusing NATO and its leaders of supporting the Albanian cause and named the Alliance as the major perpetrator of the war in Macedonia during the past year.
One explanation for this rhetoric is the pending parliamentary elections. If Ljubco Georgievski should win the nationalistically oriented voters?who are not at all a minority after last year?s fighting ? the Prime Minister and leader of VMRO-DPMNE hopes to recover his party?s lost positions.
As was the case last year, the profound threat to the peace and the territorial integrity of Macedonia comes from Kosovo. The political and emotional influence of the province on the developments in Skopje is still very strong. The ruling circles in Macedonia hoped that after holding the first democratic parliamentary elections in Kosovo and the election of a president, a process of normalization of the relations between Skopje and Pristina would be initialized. Their expectations, however, were in vain. Comments from the volatile province indicated that Pristina does not recognize the Kosovo- Macedonian border that was negotiated between Belgrad and Skopje. Statements became even more hardline after Kosovo Prime Minister Bairam Redzepi and President Ibrahim Rugova backed them. The Foreign Minister of Macedonia Slobodan Casule said this statement of the official personalities of the province is the most demanding challenge to his country after last year?s clashes. According to him, this time Macedonia is prepared to face the challenge and the instantaneous reaction to his address to the Security Council of the UN was convincing proof of that.
The general feeling is that the presence of NATO soldiers in Macedonia minimizes the threats from foreign influences. Additionally, the risk post-war recidivism is high and the soldiers of the Alliance may play a significant role in their prevention. Although the presence of NATO soldiers does not guarantee a new conflict shall not erupt, it relaxes to a high degree the relations and inspires respect. Another factor is that the uniformed members of the Alliance are expected to prevent possible incidents during the election process that may be expected. Many observers expect manipulations of the elections by VMRO-DPMNE and their coalition partner the Democratic Party of the Albanians (DPA), which certainly shall provoke the reaction of the opposition and most of all of the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI) of Ahmeti.
The suspicions of the intentions of the present ruling circles are also kept up by the fact that half a year ago an elite unit of the Macedonian police bearing the resounding name ?Lions? was formed. This unofficial (until recently) formation numbers about a thousand members and is exclusively composed of prominent members of the ruling party. The basic task of the elite combat unit, formed under the patronage of the interior minister Ljube Boskovski, was to ?neutralize? the Albanian terrorists, which provoked a sharp reaction among the international mediators in Macedonia. Early on comparisons were made to the Serb paramilitary formation of the late Arkan, the ?Tigers?, believed to be the major perpetrators of the massacres of Kosovo Albanians in 1999. In order to stop such speculation, Boskovski and Georgievski made an unusual move - they officilly attached the ?Lions? to the structures of the Ministry of Interior. It is no accident that the opposition states these one thousand servicemen are the party police of VMRO-DPMNE and have the real opportunity to influence the outcome of the elections.
In this situation the only winner in the parliamentary elections in Macedonia on September 15th is expected to be the former NLA leader Ali Ahmeti. At least this is what the newest (prior to the start of the election campaign) sociological surveys indicate. Having turned his back on combat uniforms in favor of custom-made suits, Ahmeti enjoys 12% support, which makes him second among all parties in Macedonia and has every reason to hope for effective representation in the next National Assembly. Only the opposition SDSM with 23% is ahead of him, while the ruling VMRO-DPMNE lines up third with the humble 9%. The situation ?collapse of the mastodons? (VMRO- DPMNE and SDSM) is the perfect opportunity for the smaller parties and independent candidates to come into power. What is more, the elections shall be held under the proportional system with no obligatory threshold for entering the parliament. Even now it is clear that the next National Assembly in Skopje shall be variegated, which is a precondition for a rainbow government. A future cabinet of three or more parties may prove to be unstable and unable to pass its laws in the parliament. It is also of great importance that the new government shall include one of the Albanian parties that will undoubtedly put forward demands for more rights of the represented minority.
No matter what the results of the September 15th elections are, however, nobody shall have occasion for joy because of the economic situation that is a challenge to any government. Macedonia, which in economic respect was one of the most backward regions in the former Yugoslavia, shall have difficultly overcoming the consequences of last year?s crisis. The military actions, which according to reliable sources cost Skopje a million marks daily, shackled the Republic with an additional burden that is beyond the strength of states with a much more powerful potential. President Boris Traykovski went even further in the estimates saying the war has cost Macedonia 700 million dollars. Military expenditures rose even more after buying arms and combat training from Ukraine and Yugoslavia. Prominent economists warn that the country may be on the brink of high inflation with all due consequences. Being aware that it will strike most harshly the poor social layers, it is even now clear that the level of tension shall rise.
According to official data, number of unemployed in Macedonia is 25-26%. The unemployed are predominantly young and educated people who become more and more discouraged with the dead-lock and emigrate on a large scale.
There are also factors that provide for the comfort of the ruling circles. The social peace, for example, is still sustained by the decent salaries in the state and private sector (the average salary in Macedonia is about 200 euro), by the wise policy towards the poor layers of the population and by the ?gray economy?. This economy, with all of its negative impact on the state, provides for the financial well-being of a large part of the population. Many Macedonian citizens work without labor contracts and get salaries and also registered with the Labor Office and get social relief. Last but not least, at present (and in the near future as well), the comfort of the ruling circles is provided for by the lack of strong syndicate structures. The existence of only one organized structure - the Union of the Syndicates - facilitates to a high degree the opportunities for manipulation of its leaders by the ruling office, which in practice happens. At this stage the only protesters are the workers of the losing enterprises that shall be closed down. They, however, hardly get the attention of the ruling circles or the general public, which condemns their actions to failure.
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