Croatia
Political Environment
The end of 2003 marked the wane of the ruling coalition of Social Democratic Party(SDP), Croatian Social Liberal Party (HSLS), Croatian Peasant Party (HSS) and Liberal Party (HNS). After assuming power in early 2000, the incumbent left-wing government, headed by SDP’s leader Ivica Racan, failed to address the country’s pending problems, such as the reform of the judicial system, the fight against corruption, the revival of the ailing economy, the investigation of some much-disputed privatisation deals and the necessity for full cooperation with The Hague Criminal Tribunal, thus putting into question the realisation of the country’s key objectives.
The parliamentary elections slated for November 23rd 2003, instead of in early 2004, saw a close contest between the SDP and the right-of-centre Croatian Democratic Union (Hrvatska Demokratska Zajednica - HDZ) of the late President Franjo Tudjman, now headed by Ivo Sanader. The nationalist HDZ claimed 66 seats in the 152-seat parliament compared to 43 seats for the SDP (with its coalition partners Libra, the Liberal Party (LS), and the Istrian Democratic Assembly (IDS)), thus gaining the right to form a coalition government. However, HDZ fell short of securing a parliamentary majority, with party leader Ivo Sanader remaining trapped between the urgency to form a stable coalition government by piecing together the available parliamentary seats, and the danger of yielding too much to the various demands of junior coalition partners.
Three smaller parties agreed to back Sanader’s efforts in the establishment of a governing coalition – the Croatian Social Liberal Party (HSLS), Democratic Centre (DC), and Croatian Party of Pensioners (HSU). The HDZ leader also won support from four national minority representatives in parliament. The support came at a price, as Prime Minister Sanader had to make indeed some costly concessions, including raising pensions and the allowing a bilingual policy for the Italian minority in Istria.
The new cabinet passed the parliamentary confidence vote on December 23rd. The Croatian parliament also endorsed the structural changes in the government providing for the reduction of ministerial seats from 19 to 14.The same day elected Prime Minister Ivo Sanader announced his cabinet’s priorities, among others economic and social development, GDP growth, and EU and NATO membership.
Contrary to the gloomy prospects of an unstable ruling coalition incapable of meeting EU deadlines, and despite the economic shortcomings and the relatively slow implementation of the necessary reforms of the judicial system, Croatia received a positive avis by the European Commission in April 2004. In June 2004, the European Council officially recognised Croatia as an applicant country for full membership of the EU, stipulating that, bar unforeseen circumstances, the negotiations with it are due to start in the beginning of 2005.
The end of 2004 was dominated by an active campaign for the presidential elections slated for January 2nd 2005. The first round was won by then president Stjepan Mesic, backed by eight parliamentary opposition parties, with 49.03 percent of the vote, followed by ruling HDZ candidate Jadranka Kosor with 20.18 per cent. Boris Miksic who ran as an independent candidate came surprisingly third with 17.80 percent of the vote. The first round was marred by a very low turnout of barely 50.95 percent, and by allegations of irregularities on behalf of Boris Miksic. Miksic accused Prime Minister Ivo Sanader of striking a pre-election deal with Mesic providing for an HDZ support for the current president, and demanded a recount of the votes, but the State Election Commission revoked his request.
The run-off of the elections on January 16th turned out a landslide victory for Mesic following his rival Jadranka Kosor’s clumsy campaign that failed to reach out to the centre-left oriented Croatian voters. Mesic won 66 % compared to 34 % for Kosor.
Mesic’s re-election was widely interpreted as a sign of the reluctance of Croatian citizens to entrust the entire power to only one party in the face of HDZ, as it was the case in the Tudjman era, leaving the executive branch to an HDZ-led government, but preferring to delegate the presidency to a more neutral consensus figure. At the same time, Mesic was viewed as a counterbalance to Prime Minister Sanader’s wide prerogatives, capable of putting pressure on the governing coalition with important consequences that might ensue.
One of those turned out to be the destabilisation of the ruling coalition just three months before local elections, with two Ministers, Deputy PM and Health Minister Andrija Hebrang, and Foreign Minister Miomir Zuzul, resigning in February 2005. Following structural changes in the cabinet, they were replaced by three new minister - Damir Polanec as Deputy PM for economic issues, Neven Ljubicic who was appointed Health Minister, and present Minister of European Integration Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic who headed the merged Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration.
The local elections that were called on May 15th confirmed the decreasing popularity of Ivo Sanader’s party. HDZ lost ground in the big cities being defeated by the SDP-led opposition in Zagreb and Split, at the same time performing below standard in Slavonia and Dalmatia, which were considered HDZ strongholds. Moreover, the strong showing of the nationalist Croatian Party of Rights (HSO), which captured 10% of the overall vote, warned of the general disappointment of Croatian society with the slow pace of reforms in the country, and the exasperation with the delay of EU negotiations.
The fragmentation of the political spectrum on local level resulted in persistent difficulties in the constitution of local government bodies, especially in ethnically mixed regions. The bone of contention, however, appeared to be the town of Knin in the eastern part of the country, a predominantly Serb-populated region in the period 1991-1995, where a local coalition of Croatian ethnic parties was formed, despite the high percentage garnered by the Independent Democratic Serb Party (SDSS). SDSS, a junior partner in the ruling coalition, came as far as to threat to withdraw its support, accusing Prime Minister Sanader of deliberately trying to isolate the Serbian minority from political life.