Serbia
SEE Security Monitor: Serbia
Text of report by Veseljko Koprivica entitled "Togetherness on its last legs" published by Serbian newspaper Danas on 18 September
Belgrade: Addressing the attendees of the general meeting of the Forum of Cities in the Adriatic-Ionian Region several days ago in [the Montenegrin port of] Bar, Montenegrin Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic described to them experiences in the functioning of the state union. They have fallen short of expectations and are sowing confusion in relations between the member states, Djukanovic said. Because of that, the government's priority is to resolve the constitutional status of Montenegro, "because only a sovereign and internationally-recognized Montenegro, in control of its future, will be able to achieve its proclaimed goal - integration into the European Union".
Out of a desire for that process to unfold without trauma, however, Djukanovic announced that the Montenegrin government had proposed a model of sovereign states, but for now the Serbian government had had only negative things to say about it. That is because Montenegro and Serbia are actually unable to agree on anything, even though their togetherness is on its last legs.
"If no agreement is reached on that issue, Montenegro will hold a referendum in the spring based on the experiences of European countries and with full international supervision of the entire referendum process. The epilogue of that process will be a sovereign and internationally-recognized Montenegro," Djukanovic warned.
But that is not the only communication snag when it comes to the Montenegrin referendum and the future of the state union.
Over the summer, it was announced that representatives of the European Movement for the State Union would be arriving in Podgorica from Belgrade. Two Montenegrin leaders - [President] Filip Vujanovic and [Speaker] Ranko Krivokapic - were willing to hold talks with Ljubomir Tadic [father of Serbian President Boris Tadic] and Matija Beckovic and clarify why Montenegrin citizens living in Serbia cannot vote in the referendum. Tadic and Beckovic did not show up, nor did they explain why they had cancelled the trip. Since then, no-one from the movement has expressed a desire to be received by Montenegrin officials. Its activists have opted for different tactics instead of a dialogue with Podgorica.
The chairman of the executive board of the Belgrade-based Movement for a European State Union of Serbia-Montenegro, Scepan Uscumlic, has boasted that the movement's representatives have lately been calling on the embassies of the United States, Russia, Italy, Germany, Greece, China and others, complaining to them that "the Montenegrin regime is depriving them of the elementary natural right to decide on the fate of the country of which they are citizens and to participate in a referendum on its constitutional status".
A similar tack has been adopted by the Montenegro-based Serb People's Party [SNS, Montenegrin opposition party]. Lately it has been hammering home the point that it has informed international organizations of the "apartheid policy that the Montenegrin regime is implementing against Serbs and Montenegrins who speak the Serbian language". "It is true that Serbs and Montenegrins who speak Serbian are under fire from a nationalistic, aggressive minority, namely Montenegrins who speak the so-called Montenegrin language," says Jovan Cucurovic, the director of the SNS information office, describing that drama. Thus, the party is of the opinion that "one of the first steps must be to thwart the holding of the referendum".
Accusations are also being levelled at Montenegro by officials in Belgrade. The latest is that Montenegro is pilfering money from Serbia in order to preserve social peace and finance the referendum campaign. Serbian finance minister [Mladjan Dinkic] alleges that Montenegro borrowed 15m euros from Serbia to finance the [state] army on its soil and officials in the office of Miroljub Labus contend that Montenegro is bleeding the Serbian budget dry in order to raise wages and pensions on the eve of the referendum.
Montenegrin Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic responded to those charges a few days ago by saying that the truth is quite different: Money is not flowing from Serbian taxpayers into Montenegro but vice versa. He substantiated that charge with concrete data, including this: "Just having a cursory glance at the findings of financial auditors at the Serbian Ministry of Finance, I saw that the Meljine Medical Hospital had transferred a sum of money to the integrated accounting system in Belgrade that was to the tune of around 20m euros more than what was returned to it for the functioning of the army on Montenegrin soil."
Cedomor Antic, adviser to the Serbian deputy prime minister, circulated a report that Montenegro is taking money from the Serbian budget and adding it to its cash flow in order to finance the referendum campaign. Ana Miljanic, spokeswoman for the Montenegrin Ministry of Finance, had this reaction: "Those allegations are vague and even insulting. That does not even merit comment."
Nor is the strongest Montenegrin opposition party - Predrag Bulatovic's Socialist People's Party [SNP] - in a mood for a dialogue with the Montenegrin government.
"At present the SNP has no need to accommodate the interests of the parliamentary majority and the authorities in Montenegro in having a dialogue with them. But since the European Union says that dialogue and consensus are necessary for a referendum, that means that that cannot be discussed without us," Bulatovic said recently. Last week he was categorical: first, parliamentary elections next autumn and then talks about the referendum.
That means that if Bulatovic remains true to his word, there will be no consensus within Montenegro about the referendum until the autumn - as the essential precondition for creating a democratic atmosphere for holding it - nor will there be a referendum next year. Bulatovic contends that neither the international community will give a green light to the holding of a referendum on Montenegro's independence.
Nevertheless, independence supporters are hard at work. The Movement for an Independent Montenegro, after its very successful presentation of the idea of restoring Montenegrin independence in Australia, is now organizing a visit to the Montenegrin emigre community in the United States in late October, and over the next 15 days it will finish setting up local branches in the remaining five municipalities, which will mark the formal launch of the big referendum campaign.
Several days ago, Montenegrin Parliament Speaker Ranko Krivokapic was also clear and precise: "There is no question that all deadlines expire on 4 February 2006 and that if we were to interpret the Constitutional Charter of the Serbia-Montenegro state union in the most restrictive manner, the decision on calling a referendum can be made on 5 February, and it could be held within 45 days. Thus, the final date for the referendum in Montenegro is April next year."
Source: BBC Monitoring / Danas, Belgrade